SO, about that super committee. Surely you remember, the gang of 12 that was created by the showdown over the debt ceiling this summer. Well, they’re hard at work but among the proposals out there, is one that is causing some grave concerns.
As a health workforce researcher, I understand implicitly the difficulties that lie ahead and the underlying shortage of physicians that will worsen dramatically by 2025. Current estimates suggest a shortage of over a 130,000 physicians by that time. Many, if not most, do not realize that physician training, at least the post graduate residency phase, is paid for by CMS (Center for Medicare Services).
Currently, as we all know, if the super committee does nothing, there will be an across the board 2% cut to all federal discretionary spending. Some of the other proposals are a little more concerning. In 2010, direct GME expenses totaled 9.5 billion. IME or Indirect Medical Education expenses totaled an additional 6 billion.
IME represents an additional 5.5 % payment to teaching hospitals, as it is understood that they not only teach other health professionals, but that there may be extra costs associated with education. Current proposals are to cut that rate in half (first proposed by Simpson-Bowles) to 2.2%. Among other proposals which include Home Health Co-Pays, SNF (skilled nursing facility) shared payments, raising Medicare eligibility to the age of 67, lies a proposal by the House Ways and Means Committee to cut GME funding by 15 billion over the next ten years, or a 15.7% cut. It is unknown at this time if the Committee will pursue this, but this is problematic.
Adding to the problem is the current GME Cap placed in effect in 1997, when several organizations were predicting an oversupply of physicians. This is not our current concern. This cap is problematic, and with the current budgetary concerns has no chance of changing. By 2015, we will have had over a 30% increase in medical school graduates from 2000. There is significant concern that also by 2015, we will not have enough GME residency slots for all US graduates, without even mentioning the several thousand US citizens who go to foreign medical schools every year.
States have already reduced the amount of money in the GME system, with only 41 states participating, and contributing a little over 3 billion annually. Nine additional states are now likely to opt out as well.
We need a serious look at discretionary spending, but this will only compound and weaken an already distressed healthcare system. I hope that the Super Committee strongly considers this, and looks to other alternatives.